, Suren Avetisyan , Grigor Vardanyan This study investigates the complexities and nuances of Russian-Turkish relations throughout the past century, particularly in the aftermath of the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The discrepancies in national interests between these two nations predominantly manifest in geopolitically sensitive regions, notably the South Caucasus and the Middle East, where their overlapping spheres of influence have escalated tensions. This article rigorously examines the principal dimensions of the geopolitical rivalry between Russia and Turkey, placing particular emphasis on the conflicts occurring in the South Caucasus region. Historically, both nations have adeptly exploited regional conflicts as a pivotal strategy for projecting power and expanding their spheres of influence. A comprehensive analysis of the Nagorno-Karabakh wars, alongside the Georgian-Abkhazian conflict and the Georgian-Ossetian ‘Five-Day War’, underscores the fundamentally divergent interests of Moscow and Ankara. The investigation of these conflicts holds significant importance in the context of Russian-Turkish geopolitical competition, as their proliferation has led to a marked realignment of influence within the region.
Anadolu Agency (2017) “Erdogan: Turkey, FSA close to capturing Syria’s Al-Bab”. Anadolu Ajansı, 12–13 February. Available online at
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/politics/erdogan-turkey-fsa-close-to-capturing-syria-s-al-bab/748823 (Accessed on 26.02.2025).
Kremlin (2016) “Meeting with Russian armed forces service personnel”. President of Russia, 17 May. Available online at http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51526 (Accessed on 03.03.2025).
Kremlin (2008) “Statement by President of Russia Dmitry Medvedev”. President of Russia, 26 August. Available online at
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/1222 (Accessed on 03.03.2025).
Aras, Bülent and Pinar Akpinar (2011) “The relations between Turkey and the Caucasus”. Perceptions Journal of International Affairs 16, 3, 53–68. Available online at
https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/816444 (Accessed on 23.09.2025).
Arshakyan, Grigor (2019) T’ urk’ iayi taratsashrjanayin k’ aghak’ akanut’ yuny Haravayin Kovkasum “Ardarut’ yun yev Zargats’ um” kusakts’ ut’ yan ishkhanut’ yan shrjanum. [Turkiye’s regional policy across the South Caucasus during the “Justice and Development party’s” rule.] Yerevan: Artagers Press.
Banerjee, Bipasha (2022) “Turkey on Russia-Ukraine crisis”. The Kootnethi, 31 May. Available online at
https://thekootneeti.in/2022/05/31/turkey-on-russia-ukraine-crisis/ (Accessed on 17.03.2025).
Brooker, Stephan Paul (2020) “Russia vs. Turkey: competition for influence”. Walue Walk, 2 October.Available online at
https://www.valuewalk.com/russia-vs-turkey-competition-for-influence/ (Accessed on 26.02.2025).
Butler, Ed (2021) “The Syrian mercenaries used as ‘cannon fodder’ in Nagorno-Karabakh”. BBC News, 2 October. Available online at
https://www.bbc.com/news/stories-55238803 (Accessed on 17.01.2025).
Çelikpala, Mitat (2016) “From immigrants to diaspora: influence of the North Caucasian diaspora in Turkey”. Middle Eastern Studies 42, 3, 423–446.
https://doi.org/10.1080/00263200500521339
Cem, Oğuz (1999) “The unity of the North Caucasian peoples: the case of the Confederation of the Peoples of the Caucasus”. Perceptions: Journal of International Affairs 4, 2, 126–148.
Çevik, Salim (2024) “Turkey and the transition to a post-Assad regime in Syria”. Arab Center Washington DC, 20 December. Available online at
https://arabcenterdc.org/resource/turkey-and-the-transition-to-a-post-assad-regime-in-syria/ (Accessed on 13.01.2025).
Ciddi, Sinan and Sophia Epley (2025) “Turkey and HTS: a new era of extremism in Syria?”. Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 15 January. Available online at
https://www.fdd.org/analysis/op_eds/2025/01/15/turkey-and-hts-a-new-era-of-extremism-in-syria/ (Accessed on 25.01.2025).
Dalay, Galip (2021) “Turkish-Russian relations in light of recent conflicts (Syria, Libya, and Nagorno-Karabakh)”. SWP Research Paper 5, 19–21.
https://doi.org/10.18449/2021RP05
Davutoğlu, Ahmet (2008) “Turkey’s foreign policy vision: an assessment of 2007”. Insight Turkey 10, 1, 77–96. Available online at
https://www.insightturkey.com/articles/turkeys-foreign-policy-vision-an-assessment-of-2007 (Accessed on 22.03.2025).
Davutoğlu, Ahmet (2001) Stratejik derinlik:Türkiye’ nin uluslararası konumu. [Strategic depth: Turkey’s international position.] Istanbul: Küre Yayınları.
De Waal, Thomas (2021) “Unfinished business in the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict”. Carnegie Europe, 11 February. Available online at
https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2021/02/unfinished-business-in-the-armenia-azerbaijan-conflict?lang=en¢er=europe (Accessed on 13.01.2025).
De Waal, Thomas (2003) Black garden: Armenia and Azerbaijan through peace and war, New York: NYU Press.
Demir, Sertif (2016) Turkey’s foreign policy and security perspectives in the 21st century: prospects and challenges. Florida: Brown Walker Press.
Devrim Deniz and Evelina Schulz (2009) “The Caucasus: which role for Turkey in the European neighbourhood?”. Insight Turkey 11, 3, 177–193. Stable address
http://www.jstor.org/stable/26331113
Eissler, Erik (2013) “Can Turkey de-isolate Abkhazia?”. Turkish Policy Quarterly 12, 3, 125–135. Available online at
https://abkhazworld.com/aw/Pdf/vol_12-no_3-eissler.pdf (Accessed on 21.12.2024).
Erşen, Еmre (2011) “Turkey and Russia: an emerging’ strategic axis’ in Eurasia”. EurOrient 35–36, 263–282. Available online at
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/289087784_Turkey_and_Russia_An_Emerging_’Strategic_Axis’_in_Eurasia(Accessed on 12.01.2025.
Furuncu, Yunus (2020) “The new dimension of the Turkey-Russia energy cooperation Turkstream”. SETA: Analysis 57, 1. Available online at
https://www.setav.org/en/assets/uploads/2020/01/A57En.pdf (Accessed on 17.03.2025).
Hale, William (1996) “Turkey, the Black Sea and Transcaucasia”. In John F. R. Wright, Suzanne Goldenberg, and Richard Schofield, eds. Transcaucasia boundaries, 54–71. New York: UCL Press
Helvaciköylü, Gamze (2021) “The role of Turkey and Russia in resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict”. UPA Strategic Affairs 2, 1, 158–174. Available online at
https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/1646248 (Accessed on 23.02.2025).
Hunt, Katie (2016) “Russian ambassador killed in Turkey: what do we know about the assassin?”. CNN World, 20 December. Available online at
https://edition.cnn.com/2016/12/20/europe/ankara-russia-ambassador-shooter/index.html (Accessed on 12.11.2024).
Kibaroğlu, Mustafa (2019) “On Turkey’s missile defense strategy: the four faces of the S400 deal between Turkey and Russia”. Perceptions: Journal of International Affairs 24, 2-3, 159–174. Available online at
https://www.sam.gov.tr/media/perceptions/archive/vol24/20191200/Perceptions-Autumn-Winter-2019.pdf (Accessed on 15.03.2025).
Kolobov, Oleg and Alexander Kornilov (2011) “Middle East policy of Russia under President Medvedev: strategies, institutes, faces”. Bilge Strateji 3, 4, 19-34. Available online at
https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/43504 (Accessed on 25.01.2025).
Kramer, Heinz (1996) “Will Central Asia become Turkey’s sphere of influence”. Perceptions: Journal of International Affairs 1, 4. Available online at
https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/perception/issue/49043/625636 (Accessed on 19.03.2025).
Mackinder Halford John (1919) Democratic ideals and reality: a study in the politics of reconstruction. London: Constable and Company.
Nelson, Rebecca (2017) “U.S. sanctions and Russia’s economy”. Congressional Research Service Report, R43895. Available online at
https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R43895 (Accessed on 01.01.2001).
Özbay, Fatih (2011) “The Relations between Turkey and Russia in the 2000s”. Perceptions: Journal of International Affairs 16, 3, 69–92. Available online at
https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/perception/issue/48986/625026 (Accessed on 25.02.2025).
Perrigo, Billy (2022) “Ukraine’s secret weapon against Russia: Turkish drones”. The Time, 1 March. Available online at
https://time.com/6153197/ukraine-russia-turkish-drones-bayraktar/ (Accessed on 18.03.2025).
Radford, Antoinette (2024) “The Assad regime ruled Syria for 50 years: here is how it fell in less than two weeks”. Egypt Independent, 11 December. Available online at
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/12/09/middleeast/timeline-syria-assad-regime-toppled-intl/index.html (Accessed on 23.03.2025).
Roberts, John (2006) “The Black Sea and European energy security”. Southeast European and Black Sea Studies 6, 2, 207–223.
https://doi.org/10.1080/14683850600694270
Shaheen Kareem, Shaun Walker, Julian Borger, and David Smith (2015) “Putin condemns Turkey after Russian warplane downed near Syria border”. The Guardian, 24 November. Available online at
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/24/turkey-shoots-down-jet-near-border-with-syria (Accessed on 28.02.2025).
Sharples, Jack (2015) “South Stream – as Gazprom abandons the project and announces a new gas pipeline to Turkey”. European Union Foreign Affairs Journal 1, 41–55. Available online at
https://www.libertas-institut.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/EUFAJ_1_2015.pdf (Accessed on 25.03.2025).
Smith, Mark (1993) “Pax Russia’s Monroe Doctrine”. Whitehall Paper Series, London: Royal United Services Institute for Defence Studies.
Sözen, Ahmet (2010) “A paradigm shift in Turkish foreign policy: transition and challenges”. Turkish Studies 11, 1, 103–123.
https://doi.org/10.1080/14683841003747062
Torosyan, Tigran and Arax Vardanyan (2015) “The South Caucasus conflicts in the context of struggle for the Eurasian Heartland”. Geopolitics 20, 3, 559–582.
https://doi.org/10.1080/14650045.2015.1050717
Torosyan, Tigran (2009) “The return of Turkey”. Russia in Global Affairs 3. Available online at
https://eng.globalaffairs.ru/articles/the-return-of-turkey/ (Accessed on 18.03.2025).
Weiss, Andrea and Yana Zabanova (2016) “Georgia and Abkhazia caught between Turkey and Russia: Turkey’s changing relations with Russia and the West in 2015–2016 and their impact on Georgia and Abkhazia”. SWP Comments 54, 1–8. Available online at
https://www.swp-berlin.org/publications/products/comments/2016C54_wis_zbv.pdf (Accessed on 29.01.2025).
Zelin, Aaron Y. and Soner Cagaptay (2025) “A new age for Turkish relations with Syria”. The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 20 February. Available online at
https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/new-age-turkish-relations-syria (Accessed on 15.01.2025).
