eesti teaduste
akadeemia kirjastus
SINCE 1952
Earth Science cover
Estonian Journal of Earth Sciences
ISSN 1736-7557 (Electronic)
ISSN 1736-4728 (Print)
Impact Factor (2022): 1.1
The future climate regions in Estonia; pp. 259–268

Mait Sepp, Tanel Tamm, Valentina Sagris

It can be assumed that future climate changes may have diverse impact on different parts of Estonia. For the regionalization of climate change impacts we used outputs of the EURO-CORDEX climate model ensemble and added its relative changes for temperature and precipitation to the values of the model’s reference period 1971–2000. In order to reduce the ambiguity of spatially detailed outputs, the clusters of future climate variables for seasons were produced. We conclude that three climatic regions – the mainland, the coast and the western Estonian islands – will most likely persist in the future climate. Major regional changes may occur at the end of the 21st century according to the pessimistic scenario of Representative Concentration Pathways RCP8.5. In the rest of the cases, although the boundaries of regions may shift, the warming as well as the increase in precipitation will mainly occur within the regions. Partially this will result in the growth of contrasts between regions.


Ball, G. H. & Hall, D. J. 1965. ISODATA, a Novel Method of Data Analysis and Pattern Classification. Stanford Research Institute, Menlo Park, California, 79 pp.

Int, L. & Karing, P. 1974. Mikrokliima kaardistamise eeldus­test ja perspektiividest Eesti NSV-s [About the premises and prospects of drawing up maps of the microclimate in the Estonian S.S.R.]. Teaduslike tööde kogumik, Eesti Maaviljeluse ja Maaparanduse Teadusliku Uurimise Instituut, 32, 115–124 [in Estonian].

IPCC 2014. Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R. K. & Meyer, L. A., eds). IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151 pp.

Jaagus, J. 1997. The impact of climate change on the snow cover pattern in Estonia. Climatic Change, 36, 65−77.

Jaagus, J. 2001. Kliimakalender [Climate calendar]. In Publicationes Instituti Geographici Universitatis Tartuensis, Vol. 90 (Ahas, R., ed.), pp. 9–25. Tartu Ülikooli Kirjastus [in Estonian].

Jaagus, J. 2006. Trends in sea ice conditions on the Baltic Sea near the Estonian coast during the period 1949/50–2003/04 and their relationships to large-scale atmo­spheric circulation. Boreal Environmental Research, 11, 169–183.

Jaagus, J. & Ahas, R. 2000. Space-time variations of climatic seasons and their correlation with the phenological development of nature in Estonia. Climate Research, 15,: 207–219.

Jaagus, J. & Mändla, K. 2014. Climate change scenarios for Estonia based on climate models from the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Estonian Journal of Earth Sciences, 63, 166–180.

Jaagus, J. & Truu, J. 2004. Climatic regionalisation of Estonia based on multivariate exploratory techniques. In Estonia. Geographical Studies (Kaare, T. & Punning, J.-M., eds), pp. 41–55. Estonian Academy Publishers,. Tallinn.

Jaagus, J., Post, P. & Tomingas, O. 2008. Changes in storminess on the western coast of Estonia in relation to large-scale atmospheric circulation. Climate Research, 36, 29–40.

Jacob, D., Petersen, J., Eggert, B. et al. 2014. EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research. Regional Environmental Change, 14, 563–578.

Jevrejeva, S. 2000. Long-term variability of sea ice and air temperature conditions along the Estonian coast. Geophysica, 36, 17–30.

Jevrejeva, S. & Leppäranta, M. 2002. Ice conditions along Estonian coast in a statistical view. Nordic Hydrology, 33, 241–267.

Jõgi, J., Karing, P. & Raik, A. 1976. Investigation into the microclimate of the landscape units in the Estonian S.S.R. Publications of Geography, 13, Transactions of the Tartu State University, 54– -66.

Kallaste, T. & Kuldna, P. (eds). 1998. Climate Change Studies in Estonia. UNEP/GEF, Estonian Ministry of Environment, SEI-Tallinn, 200 pp.

Karing, P. 1992. Õhutemperatuur Eestis [Air Temperature in Estonia]. Eesti Teaduste Akadeemia, Eesti Geograafia Selts, Tallinn, 78 pp. [in Estonian].

Karing, P. 2014. The regionalisation of microclimate resources. European Online Journal of Natural and Social Sciences, 3, 79–83.

Kirde, K. 1943. Kliima-valdkonnad Eestis [Climate Regions in Estonia]. Acta Universitatis Tartuensis, A-38-8. K. Mattiesen, Tartu, 30 pp. [in Estonian].

Kont, A., Endjärv, E., Jaagus, J., Lode, E., Orviku, K., Ratas, U., Rivis, R., Suursaar, Ü. & Tõnisson, H. 2007. Impact of climate change on Estonian coastal and inland wetlands – a summary with new results. Boreal Environmental Research, 12, 653–671.

Kurrik, V. 1924. Eesti kliima valdkonnad [Estonian climate regions]. Loodus, 9, 473–485 [in Estonian].

Linoff, G. S. & Berry, M. J. A. 2011. Data Mining Techniques: For Marketing, Sales, and Customer Relationship. Wiley, 847 pp.

Luhamaa, A., Kallis, A., Mändla, K., Männik, A., Pedusaar, T. & Rosin, K. 2015. Eesti tuleviku kliima stsenaariumid aastani 2100 [Estonian Future Climate Scenarios Until the Year 2100]. Annex of the final report of the project ‘Eesti riikliku kliimamuutuste mõjuga kohanemise strateegia ja rakenduskava ettepaneku väljatöötamine’. Keskkonnaagentuur, Tallinn, 89 pp. [in Estonian].

Orviku, K., Jaagus, J., Kont, A., Ratas, U. & Rivis, R. 2003. Increasing activity of coastal processes associated with climate change in Estonia. Journal of Coastal Research, 19, 364–375.

Punning, J. M. (ed.). 1996. Estonia in the System of Global Climate Change. Institute of Ecology, publication 4/1996. Tallinn, 206 pp. Tallinn

Raik, A. 1967. Eesti klimaatilisest rajoneerimisest [About climatic regionalisation of Estonia]. Eesti Loodus, 2, 65–70 [in Estonian].

Saue, T. & Kadaja, J. 2011. Possible effects of climate change on potato crops in Estonia. Boreal Environmental Research, 16, 203–217.

Sooäär, J. & Jaagus, J. 2007. Long-term changes in the sea ice regime in the Baltic Sea near the Estonian coast. Proceedings of the Estonian Academy of Sciences, Engineering, 13, 189–200.

Suursaar, Ü. & Kullas, T. 2006. Influence of wind climate changes on the mean sea level and current regime in the coastal waters of west Estonia, Baltic Sea. Oceanologia, 48, 361– -383.

Tarand, A. & Kallaste, T. (eds). 1998. Country Case Study on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Assessments in the Republic of Estonia. Report to UNEP/GEF. Stockholm Environment Institute Tallinn Centre, Ministry of Environment. Tallinn, 146 pp.

Tarand, A., Jaagus, J. & Kallis, A. 2013. Eesti kliima minevikus ja tänapäeval [Estonian Climate in the Past and Present]. Tartu Ülikooli Kirjastus, Tartu, 631 pp. [in Estonian].

Tõnisson, H., Suursaar, Ü., Orviku, K., Jaagus, J., Kont, A., Willis, D. A. & Rivis, R. 2011. Changes in coastal processes in relation to changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation, wave parameters and sea levels in Estonia. Journal of Coastal Research, SI64-1, 701–705


Back to Issue