Climate change has been shown to impact aspects of agriculture and phenology. This study aims to quantify changes in the timing of garden strawberry blooms and harvests in the Baltic States using Regional Climate Models (RCMs). First, parameters for a strawberry phenology model based on the growing degree day (GDD) methodology were determined. Growing degree days were calculated using a modified sine wave method that estimates the diurnal temperature cycle from the daily maximum and minimum temperature. Model parameters include the base temperature and the required cumulative GDD sum, estimated from phenological and meteorological observations in Latvia for the years 2010–2013 via iterative calibration. Then an ensemble of bias-corrected RCM results (ENSEMBLES project) was used as input to the phenological model to estimate the timing of strawberry phenological processes for the years 1951–2099.
The results clearly show that strawberry phenological processes can be expected to occur earlier in the future, with a significant change in regional patterns. Differences between coastal and inland regions are expected to decrease over time. The uncertainty of the results was estimated using the RCM ensemble spread, with northern coastal locations showing the largest spread.
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