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  Estonian Journal of Engineering

ISSN 1736-7522 (electronic)  ISSN 1736-6038  (print)

 An international scientific journal
Formerly: Proceedings of the Estonian Academy of Sciences Engineering
(ISSN 1406-0175)
Published since 1995

Estonian Journal of Engineering

ISSN 1736-7522 (electronic)  ISSN 1736-6038  (print)

 An international scientific journal
Formerly: Proceedings of the Estonian Academy of Sciences Engineering
(ISSN 1406-0175)
Published since 1995

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Characterization of the temporal variability of Estonian mean precipitation series; pp. 332–344

(Full article in PDF format) doi: 10.3176/eng.2011.4.04


Authors

Piia Post, Olavi Kärner

Abstract

Values of mean precipitation have been estimated from time series obtained using
15- and 30-day totals of the daily precipitation, measured at 40 stations throughout Estonia over a 45-year period (1961–2005). Six series were studied using different spatially averaged scales. The temporal variability of each series was fitted using an autoregressive and integrated moving-average (ARIMA) model of type IMA(0,1,1). The fitted model was non-stationary but allowed a formal decomposition into a stationary white noise and a non-stationary random walk component. The standard deviation of the stationary component was then used to define a 95% range of variability for the precipitation that divides the distribution into three regimes, a central and two outlying parts. We herein present simple statistics for each of these three regimes.

Keywords

precipitation, Estonia, ARIMA model, temporal variability.

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